Abstract

The `standard definition' of a conspiracy theory, the one adopted here, is that it is "an explanation of historical, ongoing, or future events that cites as a main causal factor a small group of powerful persons, the conspirators, acting in secret for their own benefit against the common good" (Uscinski & Parent 2014, p.32). The current litany of conspiracy theories in the US (among other countries) is extensive, ranging from Holocaust deniers (designed to promote antisemitism), JFK assassination theories (Oswald did not act alone; the CIA was responsible), the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York (orchestrated by the Republican administration), to Covid-19 vaccines (a means to install tracking devices in citizens' bodies). All of these examples are designed to undermine trust in the government and influence the policy process. They also serve to enrich those who propagate the theories. Although there is a large academic literature on conspiracy theories within psychology and political science, it is primarily focused on explaining why some individuals believe in conspiracy theories at all, and on identifying the political, social and behavioural correlates of those who hold such beliefs. The relationship between the entrepreneurial production of conspiracy theories to influence political decisions and the economic returns such theories can stimulate, however, has yet to receive much attention. Likewise, there is very little addressing questions of conspiracy theory endorsement by political parties. This paper develops a strategic model of the distribution of conspiracy theories by a political entrepreneur concerned to undermine trust in government and with making money. The intent is to provide some understanding of connections between the sorts of conspiracy theory distributed and the political environment; the conditions under which a political party endorses a conspiracy theory; and the consequent impact on citizens' political engagement and outcomes.

Reference

David Austen-Smith, “The Strategic Distribution of Conspiracy Theories”, IAST Lunch Seminar, Toulouse: IAST, March 28, 2025, 12:45–13:45, room Auditorium 4 (First floor - TSE Building).